China’s shadow lending system can be trying its hand at sub-prime banking. And if 民間二胎, it will likely be just what George Soros is warning about since January as he announced he was shorting your local currency, the renmimbi.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission said over the weekend that Shanghai banks can no longer cooperating with six mortgage brokers for at least 30 days for violating lending policies. Branches of seven commercial banks admitted on Monday that they may suspend mortgage lending for clients brokered by those six firms for just two months in order to clamp on “gray-market” home loans, the Shanghai office of your Commission said.

It’s unclear precisely what China means through the “gray market”, nevertheless it does appear to be mortgage brokers along with their partner banks work after a while to obtain investors and first-timers right into a home as China’s economy slows.

If this sounds like happening in Shanghai, think about the interior provinces where you will find a housing glut and they also are certainly more dependent on the real estate business for revenue.

The central and western provinces are already hit hard through the slowdown of your whole economy and consequently, existing property supply might be a hard sell, Macquarie Capital analysts led by Ian Roper wrote within a report paid by Bloomberg on Monday. Another wave of the latest housing construction won’t aid to resolve the oversupply issue in these regions, and mortgage lenders may be using some “ancient Chinese secrets” either to unload these people to buyers or fund them a little more creatively.

For some observers, this looks a bit an excessive amount of like what the seeds of the housing and financial disaster all rolled into one.

The creative goods that wiped out United states housing in 2008 — generally known as mortgaged backed securities and collateralized debt obligations tied to sub-prime mortgages — was really a massive, trillion dollar market. That’s incorrect in China. But that mortgage backed securities industry is growing. As is also China’s debt market. China’s debt doesn’t pay a hell of the lot, so some investors seeking a bigger bang might go downstream and find themselves in uncharted Chinese waters with derivative products packed with unsavory real-estate obligations.

Chinese People securitization market took off just last year and it is now approaching $100 billion. It is actually Asia’s biggest, outpacing Japan by three to a single.

Leading the drive are big state-owned banks just like the ones in Shanghai which may have temporarily de-activate access to their loans from questionable mortgage firms. Others from the derivatives business include mid-sized financial firms planning to package loans into collateralized loan obligations (CLO), that are better than CDOs insofar since they are not pools of independent mortgages. However, CLOs might include loans to housing developers determined by those independent mortgages.

China’s housing bubble differs in comparison to the Usa because — to date — there has been no foreclosure crisis and also the derivatives market that feeds off home mortgages is small. Moreover, China home buyers must make large down payments. What led to the sub-prime housing market from the Usa was the practice by mortgage brokers to approve applications of those who had no money to put down on your property. China avoids that, on paper, because of its deposit requirement.

Precisely what is not clear is the thing that real estate developers are implementing that policy, and that is not. And in the instance where that sort of debt gets packed right into a derivative product, then China’s credit gets to be a concern.

The market for asset backed securities in China has grown thanks to a new issuance system. Further healthy expansion of financial derivatives may help pull a considerable sum from the country’s notoriously opaque shadow banking sector and set it back on banks’ books, giving China more transparency.

But Shanghai’s crackdown this weekend reveals that authorities are keeping a detailed eye on home mortgage brokers even if the “gray market” is not necessarily linked to derivatives.

Kingsley Ong, a partner at law firm Eversheds International who helped draft China’s asset-backed security laws in 2007, called the opportunity of securitization in China “nearly unlimited”.

The absence of industry experience and widespread failure to disclose financial information have raised queries about its ultimate effect on the broader economy.

All this “eerily resembles what went down during the financial crisis inside the United states in 2007-08, which had been similarly fueled by credit growth,” Soros said during the meeting with the Asia Society in The Big Apple on April 20. “The majority of the money that banks are supplying is needed to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive,” he said.

China’s securitization market took shape in April of 2005 but was suspended during 2009 due to United states housing crisis and its connection to the derivatives market China is now building. Regulators lifted the ban on mortgage backed securities in May 2012, though they outlawed re-securitization products and synthetic CDOs, which are CDOs of CDOs, the uicide squeeze that helped kill dozens of American banks including Lehman and Bear Stearns.

China Banking Regulatory Commission is opening the CDO market to domestic and international investors. Given the size and unruliness of China’s market, this is fraught with problems from the get-go. It’s a little market, so short sellers like Soros can’t blame it on any implosion of China’s overall economy. Only around 50 billion yuan has been granted from the regulators for CDO trading. The size and style and potential only compares using the U.S.

CDOs can help China whittle back debts at and let some banks move several of its portfolio risk outside the domestic financial system and in the hands of emerging market fixed income fund managers. The Financial Times estimated in March that China has around 1.27 trillion yuan ($194 billion) in uncollaterized debt, however they claim that analysts estimate the actual number to be often higher. Which is at the very least partially as a result of property developers, that have been busy developing “ghost cities” for over a decade. The CDO market will enable banks to help keep underwriting home loans to job-creating construction firms and pass them through to foreign investors who happen to be currently being sold on the narrative that Chinese fixed income is a crucial part of any global, diversified portfolio.

The Shanghai branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) was forced by city bank authorities to shut down its clients business with seven mortgage brokers. The problem is, the ruling is short for just 2 months. (Photo by LAURENT FIEVET/AFP/Getty Images)

This weekend’s decision by Shanghai bank regulators also shows simply how much potential there is for stench from the system.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission stated it made its decision Saturday after “careful inspection of the mortgage business at commercial bank outlets, and certain misconduct that dexrpky37 been discovered.”

The misconduct includes “transferring home loans to a 3rd party — neither seller nor buyer of your property — who later wired the money to a property agency, along with down payments raised through property agencies.”

The six property firms include 房屋二胎; Shanghai Pacific Rehouse Service and Shanghai Hanyu Property Consultancy.

Nobody knows those names. Nevertheless the seven bank outlets that got scolded Saturday include Industrial and Commercial Bank of Chinanull, the financial institution of China, China Construction Bank, the financial institution of Communications, SPD Bank and HSBC Shanghai.

The measures came about on a monthly basis after a joint notice through the Commission’s Shanghai office and the local branch of your People’s Bank of China vows to step-up efforts to manage mortgage loan operations, reduce systematic risks towards the banks and develop the real estate debt market.